The NFER blog

Evidence for excellence in education


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Choose a not-for-profit research organisation for a lower effect size?

By Ben Styles

As the head of NFER’s Education Trials Unit, I was interested to read Professor Stephen Gorard’s recent book on Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) in education.

It’s an interesting book but there are aspects that I would like to challenge. Take the passage that reads: ‘One of the main problems with [the Institute of Education Sciences (IES) and the Education Endowment Foundation (EEF)] lies in finding the capacity among traditional researchers in university departments of education to conduct and even appreciate such work… Instead, the funds have been taken up by the growing sector of not-for-profit organisations… IES (and EEF in the UK) need the capacity that these organisations offer in order to conduct evaluations, and the organisations themselves need the external funding maintained in order to pay the salary of staff employed to do the evaluations. This might make the organisations more likely to provide what they feel the funder wants…’ Continue reading


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Factors affecting maths achievement and pupil absence in Ethiopian schools

By Stephen McNamara

Bad policy is, at best, a waste of resources and, at worst, damaging to those it intends to help. To prevent such situations, we need reliable data to facilitate effective analysis and policy.

One of the best sources of data about educational outcomes in the Global South is the Young Lives study, which is carrying out longitudinal research on childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam. Young Lives School surveys, which provide valuable insights on student achievement, school effectiveness, and equity issues, and are an important component of this research. Continue reading


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What’s happening to reading under the new Key Stage 2 curriculum and assessment regime?

By Jennie Harland and Claire Hodgson

The Government has today published the provisional national curriculum assessment results for Key Stage (KS) 2 for primary pupils in England. They show very encouraging increases in attainment compared with the 2016 results, with 61 per cent of pupils reaching the expected standard in reading, writing and mathematics (i.e. a scaled score of 100 or more or a teacher assessment of ‘reaching the expected standard’ or ‘working at greater depth’ in writing) in 2017 compared with 53 per cent in 2016. Continue reading


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Overall NEET rates continue to fall but should we be concerned about the rise in 16 to 18 year olds who are NET as well as NEET?

By Tami McCrone

Amidst the excitement of GCSE results and commentary on the new grading system for English and maths yesterday, you may be forgiven for missing the fact that the latest quarterly statistical first release (SFR) from the Department for Education on young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) was also published.
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Income and expenditure in academies: new data raises more questions than answers

By Claire Easton

The latest Department for Education (DfE) statistics on income and expenditure in academies in England for 2015/16 were released last week. Press coverage focused on the extent to which academies’ expenditure exceeds their income. This shows that the total excess expenditure for all academies has risen from one per cent of total income in 2014/15 to 1.5 per cent in 2015/16 equating to an overspend of £280m in 2015/16. The DfE states that these figures do not necessarily mean that individual academies are in debt as they could be drawing on their reserves. It is not possible to tell from this Statistical First Release (SFR), which, overall, we think raises more questions than it answers. Continue reading


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The ups and downs of teacher recruitment

By Maire Williams

Teacher recruitment has been a widely reported and challenging issue for the education sector for some time. The Government has responded by running recruitment campaigns and offering financial incentives to attract new trainee teachers. The latest Initial Teacher Training performance statistics for the 2015/16 academic year, released today, show a small increase in the total number of trainees for the first time since 2009/10. In part, this is because Teach First trainees have been included, but even excluding these figures a small increase remains.  Coming at a time when more teachers are needed in the next ten years to cope with the large projected increase in pupil numbers, this increase looks promising. Yet, due to the longer-term trend, the number of trainees (including Teach First trainees) remains 13 per cent lower today than it was in 2009/10. Continue reading


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Changing the subject? How EBacc is changing school timetables

By Joana Andrade and Jack Worth

Yesterday, the Secretary of State confirmed that the Government’s ambition remains for 90 per cent of pupils to be entered for GCSEs in the EBacc subjects, although the timescale for expecting schools to achieve this goal has been put back from 2020 to 2025. This is rather a timely change as our recent analysis of teacher recruitment and retention indicated that teacher supply challenges, particularly for science and modern foreign languages teachers, would make it difficult for the Government to achieve its aim in such a short time. Continue reading


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Increasing pupil numbers create challenges for secondary schools

By Suzanne Straw

The Government has today published the latest Department for Education (DfE) national pupil projections. They show that state primary and secondary pupil numbers are expected to continue to grow over the coming years. The number of primary pupils will see a small increase of 1.9 per cent between 2017 and 2021, after which it will plateau. However, secondary schools will see a much larger increase, with the number of full-time equivalent pupils aged up to 15 years projected to increase by 320,000 (+11.4 per cent) by 2021 and to continue to grow until 2025. This significant growth for secondary schools suggests a major challenge ahead and, in this blog post, we look at what this might mean for the sector. Continue reading


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If you want to learn, ask a teacher

By Claudia Sumner and Sigrid Boyd

The third and final part of this blog series on evidence-informed policymaking looks at the importance of stakeholders.

Involving stakeholders in the development of public policy seems a no-brainer. After all, it is stakeholders who will ultimately interpret, implement and experience policy and they are best placed to anticipate any unintended effects or consequences on the ground. Following the general election, David Bell (who ran the Department for Education under both Ed Balls and Michael Gove and is now Vice-Chancellor of Reading University), said that while evidence will always be interpreted through an ideological lens, ‘the best lessons for politicians come from teachers themselves’. Continue reading


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More teachers are joining than leaving the profession, but will it be enough to meet demand?

By Sarah Lynch and Jack Worth

School workforce and teacher retention are high on the current education policy agenda and are the subject of on-going NFER research. The latest statistics from the 2016 School Workforce Census (SWC), published today by the Department for Education (DfE), shed some more light on the current state of the teacher labour market. Continue reading